Forecast Errors Trend

Based on the CMA Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset and in accordance with typhoon forecast evaluation method specified in the CMA's ‘Regulations on Typhoon Operations and Services 2024’, CMA forecast errors over the years have been calculated.

Please indicate that the Forecast Errors Trend data was obtained from tcdata.typhoon.org.cn, and refer to the following paper in any written work using the dataset:

  • YU Hui, CHEN Lianshou, TAN Zhemin, DUAN Yihong, YANG Mengqi, CHEN Chen, LI Yongping, CHEN Guomin, HUANG Wei, QIAN Qifeng, MA Suhong, WANG Xin. 2025: Development of tropical cyclone forecasting technology in China: the history, present situation and future. Acta Meteorologica Sinica. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240180
Fig 1. Track forecast error of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (1990-2024). Forecasting agency: Central Meteorological Observatory, China Meteorological Administration. The dots are the annual mean values, and the dotted line is the linear trend.
Fig 2. Intensity forecast error of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (2000-2024). Forecasting agency: Central Meteorological Observatory, China Meteorological Administration. The dots are the annual mean values, and the dotted line is the linear trend.
Statement
  • This website provides tropical cyclone related data in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations of the People’s Republic of China and meteorological data sharing provisions. The data of this website is for research reference only and shall not be used for commercial purposes. China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai Typhoon Institute and the website are not responsible for any loss caused by the use (or inability to use) of the data of this website.